Cars attracted frenzied speculation from the start. As Warren Buffett likes to point out, most investors got burnt: of 2,000 US car companies at the start of the 20th century three endured. “Of course, the thing you should have been doing,” the Sage of Omaha has remarked more than once, “was shorting horses.”汽车从一开始就更有了可怕的投机活动。正如沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)讨厌认为的那样，多数投资者损失惨重：在20世纪初2000家美国汽车公司中，只有3家坚决了下来。
“当然，你本应当做到的一件事是，”这位奥马哈圣人(Sage of Omaha)不止一次地说道，“做空（汽车问世前拖车的）马。”Investors are once more captivated by cars, this time electric and autonomous ones. Unlike 100 years ago, however, there are not 2,000 companies on which to bet. Some might look to Google parent Alphabet or Apple, the technology groups for whom cars are just a large research cost; most, though, alight on Tesla, the electric carmaker.如今，投资者再度为汽车著迷，这一次是电动汽车和无人驾驶汽车。
与100年前有所不同，现在没2000家公司可以押注。一些人可能会看上谷歌(Google)母公司Alphabet或苹果(Apple)，对于这些科技集团而言，汽车只是一项巨额研究成本；然而，多数人欢迎电动汽车制造商特斯拉(Tesla)。Yet it is not certain that Tesla has the staying power of a General Motors rather than the shorter life of a Winton Motor Carriage Company or one of the other original also-rans. And while the market seems to have identified traditional carmakers as the “horses”, they are not heading for the knacker’s yard and could adapt to a new market.然而，现在还无法确认特斯拉否不具备通用汽车(General Motors)那样的持久力，而不是像某个Winton Motor Carriage Company或者其他最初的肤浅企业之一那样短命。与此同时，尽管市场或许将传统汽车制造商视作“马”，但它们未南北兵士马匹屠宰场，而是几乎有可能适应环境新的市场。
At Tesla, chief executive Elon Musk is a magnetic evangelist for his company, convincing shareholders to supply more cash to fund factories and cars. They have poured in more than $7bn since the 2010 initial public offering. Additional shares bring dilution which should reduce the price, but it has marched higher, up 50 per cent this year. Even analysts at Goldman Sachs, Tesla’s preferred underwriter for the share sales, now reckon no one should buy them: its price target of $180 is almost 50 per cent below the current level.在特斯拉，首席执行官埃隆?马斯克(Elon Musk)是他公司的一位富裕魅力的传道士，擅于劝说股东拿走更加多资金来为工厂和汽车融资。自2010年首次公开发行(IPO)以来，他们已投放逾70亿美元。
更好的股票将产生溶解起到，应当不会减少股价，但该公司股价却大踏步向前，今年以来下跌50%。就连特斯拉注目的股票发售承销商高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师现在也指出，谁都不该购入这些股票：其股价目标为180美元，比当前价格低近一半。With a $50bn valuation despite no profits, negative free cash flow and frequently missed delivery targets, Tesla is a compelling counterpoint to the complaint that markets are fixated on the short term. It has lost money every year since going public in 2010 and burnt almost $7bn of cash along the way. Despite promising to reach positive free cash flow, Tesla has only achieved it in four of 34 quarters: capital spending usually overwhelms the cash coming in.尽管没利润，权利现金流为负值而且再三错失交付给目标，但特斯拉的估值高达500亿美元。
这一点是对“市场注目短线”这个观点的有力驳斥。自2010年上市以来，该公司年年亏损，其间烧毁了近70亿美元资金。尽管允诺将构建正数的权利现金流，但在34个季度中，特斯拉只有4个季度构建了这一目标：资本开支一般来说多达投放的资金。
Listen to Mr Musk at the annual meeting last month and that is not a surprise. He swept from solar roof tiles to powering a Hawaiian island, to a plan for a car that would drive itself from California to New York without any human intervention, to 20 vast “gigafactories” producing batteries, to a prototype truck that would be unveiled in September.讲出马斯克在上月年会上的讲话，这一点会让人车祸。他滔滔不绝，从太阳能屋顶瓦片说道到为夏威夷一岛屿供电，谈及一辆无人驾驶汽车在没人力介入的情况下从加州进到纽约的计划，谈及20家生产电池的可观“千兆工厂”，还谈及将在今年9月亮相的一款卡车样车。“It’s not inconceivable I would do an electric plane,” he said, adding: “no, I’m not saying we’re going to add a nuclear fusion reactor. I’m just saying it fits.”“并非不可想象的是，我要研发一种电动飞机，”他回应，他还补足称之为：“不，我没说道我们要再加一个核聚变反应堆。我只是说道它适合。
”Yet Tesla delivered only 76,000 cars last year. Morgan Stanley analysts forecast it will not surpass 1m until 2028. Toyota, Volkswagen and GM each produce about 10m cars a year out of global sales of 90m. For the Model 3, its new mass-market car priced at $35,000, Tesla has said it will produce 5,000 a week at some point in 2017 and 10,000 a week at some point in 2018. There were 400,000 initial deposits of $1,000. But the deposits are refundable and the car is not yet on the roads, though it says it will be delivered on schedule.然而，特斯拉去年仅有交付给了7.6万辆汽车。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师预测，其产量在2028年之前会多达100万辆。
丰田(Toyota)、大众(Volkswagen)和通用汽车(GM)各自的汽车年产量都超过1000万辆左右，而全球汽车销量为9000万辆。对于价格为3.5万美元、面向大众的新款汽车Model 3，特斯拉回应，2017年某时将超过每周生产5000辆，2018年某时将超过每周生产1万辆。现在有40万人缴纳了1000美元的定金。
但这些定金可以归还，而这款汽车还未上市，尽管特斯拉回应将按计划交付给。Seeking to rein in demand, even Mr Musk is imploring people not to buy it; orders placed now do not have hope of delivery until the end of 2018.为了掌控市场需求，就连马斯克都劝说人们不要出售；现在递交的订单没期望在2018年底之前交付给。38% The share of the market held by electric cars in 1900. Thomas Edison the inventor, above, worked on electric car batteries throughout the first decade of the 20th century.38% 1900年电动汽车的市场占有率。
By then there will be more competition. GM has shown with the Chevy Bolt that it can make an electric car with both a range — 238 miles on one charge — and a pricetag similar to the Model 3.到那时，竞争将更为白热化。通用汽车已用雪佛兰Bolt(Chevy Bolt)证明，其需要生产一款在续航里程（差使一次电行经238英里）和价格上与Model 3相似的电动汽车。If the Bolt falls short on style, then companies including BMW, Daimler, Nissan and VW will deliver more alluring models in the next two years. VW plans 10 new models by then and for electric vehicles to account for 20-25 per cent of sales by 2025. Honda wants two-thirds of its vehicles to be partly electric-powered by 2030, a goal that includes petrol/electric hybrids such as the Accord. Volvo went a step further this week, announcing the end of the purely petrol engine in its cars from 2019. Having previously focused on hydrogen fuel cell technology, Toyota, too, is ramping up its electric ambitions.如果说雪佛兰Bolt在式样上过于诱人的话，那么还包括宝马(BMW)、戴姆勒(Daimler)、日产(Nissan)、大众在内的车企都将在接下来两年发售更加有吸引力的车型。
大众计划在此期间发售10款新车，并使电动汽车销量到2025年占到总销量的20%至25%。本田(Honda)期望到2030年旗下三分之二的汽车构建部分由电力驱动，这一目标还包括雅阁(Accord)等油电混合动力车。沃尔沃(Volvo)更进一步，最近宣告从2019年起暂停生产配有显汽油发动机的汽车。此前专心于氢燃料电池技术的丰田，也在增大研发电动汽车的雄心。
Even if the Model 3 succeeds, it is hard to imagine Tesla ever matching the sales of the biggest carmakers. Yet it is valued as if it will. VW, GM and Toyota each sell about 10m cars a year and make a combined $34bn in net income between them. Tesla, with consistent losses and less than 1 per cent of its volume, overtook GM this year to become the most valuable US carmaker. Finding another way to live up to its enterprise value requires a leap of faith that Tesla can attain and exploit an advantage in some other technology — batteries or autonomous cars perhaps.即便Model 3大获得顺利，也很难想象特斯拉需要超过各大汽车制造商的销量。但从特斯拉的估值来看，奇特它应当需要做。大众、通用汽车、丰田每家的年销量都为1000万辆左右，净利润总计340亿美元。今年，持续亏损且产量将近通用汽车1%的特斯拉，已代替通用汽车沦为美国市值最低的汽车制造商。
寻找另一条途径来构建它的企业价值，必须一次信心进步，也许是特斯拉需要提供并利用其他什么技术——电池或自动驾驶汽车。This week Tesla has hit trouble; whether it is a bump in the road or something more serious remains to be seen. Weak sales data fed the narrative that potential customers were forgoing existing models and waiting for the cheaper Model 3; the shares are off almost a fifth from their recent high. More than most companies, Tesla needs its inflated stock price since it relies on the stock market for funding.最近特斯拉遭遇了困难；这是一个小波折还是更加相当严重的问题仍尚待仔细观察。
低迷的销售数据引起猜测——潜在的客户正在退出现有的车型，等候更加低廉的Model 3；特斯拉的股价已从近期的高点跌到去近五分之一。特斯拉比大多数公司更加必须虚高的股价，因为它要倚赖股市融资。Plenty of sceptics have lost money betting on the shares to fall. S3 Partners, a financial analytics firm which tracks short sellers, estimates their losses are $4bn this year. It does not mean the short sellers are wrong: the road to success for Tesla still looks incredibly narrow.很多怀疑者因为押注特斯拉股价暴跌而缴了钱。
跟踪卖空者的金融分析公司S3 Partners估算，他们今年的损失将约40亿美元。这并不意味著卖空者拢了：特斯拉的成功之路看上去仍极为狭小。While Tesla soars, the broader industry is being treated as if it is seriously ill, with a price/earnings multiple that is about the lowest in 20 years. Traditional carmakers have inspired no faith in their ability to adapt to new technology. Doubts are understandable. As recently as 2009, GM and Chrysler were going through bankruptcy. The emissions scandal that cost VW and other car manufacturers billions of dollars struck only two years ago.在特斯拉股价上涨之际，整个汽车行业好像被当成病入膏肓者对待，市盈率正处于20年来最低水平。传统汽车制造商适应环境新技术的能力没能引发任何信心。
这些顾虑可以解读。就在不那么久之前的2009年，通用汽车和克莱斯勒经历过倒闭。令其大众等汽车制造商代价数十亿美元代价的废气作弊丑闻就再次发生在两年前。In May, a month after Tesla overtook its market value, Ford ousted chief executive Mark Fields for failing to push fast enough into the future. GM has made bolder bets, paying $581m for Cruise Automation, a San Francisco-based autonomous driving company; investing $500m in Lyft, the ride-hailing company; and launching Maven, a car-sharing app, with the surprising admission that, when city dwellers buy a car, it depreciates “fairly rapidly, you use it 3 per cent of the time, and you pay a vast amount of money to park it for the other 97 per cent of the time”.今年5月，在市值上被特斯拉打破一个月后，福特辞退了首席执行官马克?菲尔茨(Mark Fields)，理由是他没能充足慢地率领公司向未来前进。
通用汽车作出了更加大胆的押注，向总部坐落于旧金山的自动驾驶汽车公司Cruise Automation投资5.81亿美元；向叫车服务公司Lyft投资5亿美元；发售共享汽车应用于Maven，并出人意料地否认，当城市居民出售一辆车时，它升值“非常慢，你只是在3%的时间里用于它，但要为其余97%的时间花上大量钱缴纳停车费”。However, this is not being rewarded in the market any more than Ford’s more cautious approach. GM trades at a depressed multiple of five times expected earnings. Investors believe in future car technologies, but not that the current carmakers will profit.然而，比起福特更为慎重的姿态，通用汽车未在市场上取得更高的报酬。
通用汽车股票的预期市盈率只有区区5倍。投资者坚信的是未来的汽车技术，而不是当前的汽车制造商将不会盈利。The same divide is reflected among suppliers. Intel paid $15bn in March for Mobileye, an Israeli company that makes sensors for driverless cars and not much in the way of profit: the price works out at more than 100 times core earnings, not dissimilar to Tesla’s valuation. Nvidia, whose chips are used in self-driving technology, has seen its shares triple in a year.某种程度的分化也经常出现在供应商之间。
今年3月，英特尔(Intel)耗资150亿美元并购了为无人驾驶汽车生产传感器的以色列公司Mobileye：虽然该公司利润不低，但收购价是核心盈利的100多倍，与特斯拉的估值有点相似。英伟达(Nvidia)的股价一年间下跌了两倍，其生产的芯片被用作自动驾驶技术。Federal-Mogul on the other hand, founded in Detroit in 1899 and a maker of less glamorous parts such as pistons and gaskets, was valued at $1.7bn, just 2.5 times core earnings, when it was acquired this year by Carl Icahn.另一方面，辉门公司(Federal-Mogul)今年被卡尔?伊卡恩(Carl Icahn)并购时的估值为17亿美元，仅有为核心盈利的2.5倍。
1899年正式成立于底特律的辉门公司是一家生产活塞、密封垫等普通配件的制造商。Delphi, another large supplier, made the decision to split into two and was immediately rewarded with a 10 per cent increase in the stock price. Shareholders assume the advanced electronics division will be valued more attractively once shorn of the engine division.另一家大型汽车零部件供应商德尔福(Delphi)在要求拆分为两部分后，股价旋即下跌10%。
股东们指出，一旦与发动机部门分离，先进设备电子部门的估值将极具吸引力。Yet the gloom surrounding the incumbents seems overdone. Ford’s free cash flow is about $13bn, enough to buy back all of its own depressed shares within three years. Low interest rates have helped prolong a period of bumper sales. US sales, which fell to a rate of 9m in 2009, remain close to 17m a year, although sales are now declining.然而，环绕老牌车企的乐观情绪或许过头了。福特的权利现金流大约为130亿美元，不足以在3年内买入其价格偏高的全部股票。
低利率协助沿袭了疯狂销售。在2009年跌到至900万辆之后，美国汽车销量完全恢复到了每年近1700万辆的水平，尽管如今销量在下降。President Donald Trump may enjoy torturing carmakers for their overseas plants but he is hardly going to upend their business models with tough environmental rules and incentives. Mr Trump tweeted this week: “Gas prices are the lowest in the US in over 10 years! I would like to see them go even lower.”美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)也许乐意吓跑在海外投资设厂的美国汽车制造商，但他不太可能用严苛的环保法规和鼓舞措施来政治宣传他们的商业模式。特朗普近日发推文称：“美国汽油价格正处于10多年来的最低水平！我期望看见它们叛得更加较低。
”Indeed, gas prices in the US are about $2.50 a gallon, while they have spent most of the past decade closer to $4. While investors become excited by electric cars, Ford is selling gas-guzzling pick-up trucks in record numbers.的确，美国汽油价格约为每加仑2.50美元，而过去10年的大部分时间都更加相似4美元。尽管投资者对电动汽车兴奋不已，但福特销售的耗油量大的皮卡数量超过创纪录水平。
Change will come, but judging the pace is crucial. Opec, which has a vested interest, predicts that fewer than 7 per cent of vehicles on the road will be fully electric as far away as 2040. The oil producers’ cartel also assumes the number of cars will double from today to 2bn. Tech evangelists scoff at this, claiming more will be electric and more will be shared and autonomous.变革将经常出现，但辨别变化的步伐至关重要。享有既得利益的石油输出国组织(Opec)预测，即使到了很远的2040年，在路上行经的全电动汽车也将将近7%。这个产油国卡特尔还指出，汽车数量将比现在增加一倍，超过20亿辆。
科技信徒回应嗤之以鼻，声称电动汽车数量将更加多，同时将有更加多汽车被分享和自动化。But even under more radical forecasts — UBS predicts electric vehicles, including hybrids, will account for 14 per cent of sales by 2025 — there will still be plenty of petrol-powered cars. If investors remain so down on the industry, private equity firms should be able to strike bargain deals for cash generative companies.然而，即便根据更加保守的预测（瑞银(UBS)预测，到2025年还包括混合动力汽车在内的电动汽车将占到汽车总销量的14%），还是不会有大量以汽油为动力的汽车。如果投资者对该行业如此不寄予厚望，私人股本公司应当能以低价并购产生大量现金的公司。
And if change is more rapid, some carmakers should be better insulated than before. Steve Rattner, the “car tsar” in the Obama administration, highlights how rapidly the new threats have emerged. “I literally never heard the words ‘autonomous vehicle’ or ‘ride-sharing’,” he says of his time supervising the restructuring of GM and Chrysler in 2009, but notes that the carmakers were made to cut costs so they could break even if sales stayed at 10m a year. That should help when the cycle turns and even cushion a more profound blow, such as more people choosing to hail or share rather than own their cars.如果变革更加很快，一些汽车制造商应当不会比以前不具备更佳的抗压能力。曾在奥巴马政府兼任“汽车沙皇”的史蒂夫?拉特纳(Steve Rattner)认为新的威胁有可能很快经常出现。他在谈及2009年他监督通用汽车和克莱斯勒重组时回应，“那时我知道未曾听见过‘自动驾驶汽车’或‘拼车’。
”但他认为，这些汽车制造商被勒令缩减成本，这样如果销量维持在每年1000万辆的话，它们就能构建盈亏均衡。这将在周期变化时有所协助，甚至需要减轻更加沈重的压制，例如更好的人自由选择微信或拼车，而不是买车。
“We may have left these companies reasonably positioned to at least hold their own financially,” says Mr Rattner.拉特纳回应：“我们有可能让这些公司正处于较好的状态，最少可以在财务上拥立。”Detroit’s sunniest optimists even say that, when the world shifts, the carmakers will thrive: fat operating margins will be available for managing autonomous fleets of taxis and buses or providing insurance. Ford forecasts it will make margins of more than 20 per cent from these services.底特律最悲观的人士甚至回应，当世界发生变化时，汽车制造商将蓬勃发展：管理自动驾驶出租车和巴士或获取保险业务将取得可观的营运利润率。福特预测，该公司将从这些服务中取得多达20%的利润率。
Few endorse these estimates. Max Warburton, analyst at Bernstein, argues: “Precisely none of these activities makes 20 per cent margins for anyone, anywhere.”完全无人反对这些预测。伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析师马克斯?沃伯顿(Max Warburton)坚称：“这些活动显然不有可能构建20%的利润率，对任何地区的任何一家企业都是如此。”It is understandable that such profits would appeal to carmakers, whose operating margins range from 2 per cent at Ford to 8 per cent at Daimler. Yet their puny margins offer some defence: why would tech titans such as Alphabet, with an operating margin above 26 per cent, start making cars?可以解读的是，这些利润将更有汽车制造商，目前它们的营运利润率介于2%（福特）到8%（戴姆勒）。
然而，这些较低得真是的利润率获取了一些防卫：营运利润率多达26%的Alphabet等科技巨擘为何要开始生产汽车？Rather than cut out the incumbents, collaboration is more likely. Tech companies might provide the core technology, mainly the software, for self-driving cars while the carmakers stick to their capital-intensive, low-margin business.更加有可能经常出现的是合作，而不是代替老牌汽车制造商。科技公司可以为自动驾驶汽车获取核心技术，主要是软件，而汽车制造商将继续做资本密集型、较低利润率的业务。
Waymo, the Alphabet subsidiary which has racked up more than 3m autonomous miles, has a partnership with Fiat Chrysler, which is supplying 600 minivans. Waymo has also linked up with Lyft, the app that competes with Uber, and Avis Budget. Semi-autonomous trips are expected before the end of the year.Alphabet子公司Waymo的自动驾驶里程已多达300万英里，该公司与菲亚特克莱斯勒(Fiat Chrysler)合作，由后者获取600辆面包车。Waymo已和与优步(Uber)竞争的应用于Lyft以及Avis Budget合作。预计在今年底之前将发售半自动驾驶员行程。
The unknown is Apple, which is working on cars and does not typically put its software in another company’s hardware. If Tesla can succeed in producing vehicles at scale then surely so could the world’s richest company. But it would require more daring than has been seen at Apple since the death of Steve Jobs.一个不得而知因素是苹果，于是以致力于研发汽车的该公司一般会将自己的软件置放另一家公司的硬件中。如果特斯拉的电动汽车需要顺利构建量产，那么这家全球最富裕的公司认同也能。
但比起史蒂夫?乔布斯(Steve Jobs)去世后人们看见的苹果，该公司必须展现更加多勇气。Traditional carmakers cannot afford to relax but they should be wary of rash moves. Incumbents can sometimes make the technological leap and still come a cropper.传统汽车制造商无法放开，但他们也应当小心，不要鲁莽行事。老牌公司有时构建了技术进步，却仍有可能告终。Studebaker, a horse-drawn carriage company of the 19th century, became a successful carmaker in the 20th. But it continued paying a large dividend after the 1929 stock market crash, invested heavily in new vehicles and pulled off a big acquisition. This all fatally damaged the balance sheet, the company collapsed in March 1933 and three months later Albert Erskine, Studebaker’s president, took a revolver to the bathroom and shot himself through the heart.19世纪的马车公司斯蒂贝克(Studebaker)在20世纪沦为一家顺利的汽车制造商。
但在1929年股市暴跌后仍之后缴纳较高股息，乘机投资新汽车，还已完成了一笔大规模收购。这一切给资产负债表带给可怕受损，该公司于1933年3月倒闭，3个月后，斯蒂贝克总裁阿尔伯特?厄斯金(Albert Erskine)带着一把左轮手枪回到浴室，朝着自己的心脏进了枪。
Above the news of Mr Erskine’s death on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune is an unrelated cartoon, which provides a reminder that technological forecasts are seldom on the money. A man proclaims that within 25 years indestructible planes powered wirelessly from the earth will transport passengers at 1,000mph. The caption reads: “Today no one considers the most fantastic prediction to be improbable.”在《芝加哥论坛报》(Chicago Daily Tribune)首页上厄斯金自杀身亡的消息上方是一张与此无关的漫画，它警告人们科技预测很少是准确的。在漫画上，一位男子声称，在25年内，从地球上无线供电的坚不可摧的飞机将以1000英里的时速载客飞行中。标题是：“如今，没有人指出最荒谬的预测是不有可能的。
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